Sunday, November 10, 2024

How Much Will Intelligence Cost in the Future?

AI-driven intelligence costs are falling fast: token prices are dropping faster than nearly anything in tech.

We might see intelligence (compute, inference) become a renewable, fungible resource, fueled by inputs like hardware (GPUs, TPUs, ASICs), electricity, and the supply chains necessary for their creation and deployment.

But true commoditization isn't guaranteed:

  1. If hardware remains scarce, prices will rise (though the opposite keeps happening)

  2. If someone develops next-level AI (e.g., GPT-6) that unlocks entirely new use cases and can charge a premium before competition catches up, scarcity will again drive prices higher. Especially if inference hardware is limited, creating a bidding war among those willing to pay. This hasn't happened yet because current LLMs (like GPT-4) don't deliver enough value to justify significantly higher prices. But if a GPT-6 were capable of matching or surpassing highly skilled individuals, you wouldn't price it at $10 per million tokens. Instead, you'd charge as much as customers are willing to pay, based on the value it creates.

The result? Basic intelligence could drop to just energy and material costs, while the newest, high-value AI remains exclusive, commanding premium prices.

Long-term: Even premium AIs may eventually become commodities, with the frontier continuously advancing. This would grant everyone access to better and better intelligence, while those at the cutting edge push the boundaries even further.

*Intelligence = the ability to solve intellectual tasks (not just physical work). Here I focus only on inference, not training, because inference has the potential to scale infinitely, as demand will be infinite, unlike other resources (e.g., food, entertainment, goods), which are limited by our time and attention.

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Reality is Our Enemy

I've spent years crafting virtual worlds and leading a team that creates games like Space Engineers, but it wasn't until recently that I realized why I became a game developer: I hate limits. I despise constraints, especially those imposed by others. And reality? Reality is the ultimate limiter.

So, I'm not just making games; I'm rebelling against the very fabric of our existence. And I'm here to tell you why reality is pissing me off and why we should all become rebels against it.💪😎

The Limits That Bind Us

Imagine a universe where the speed of light is merely a suggestion, where death is an optional end-game event, and where the laws of physics bend to the will of imagination. Now open your eyes to our world - a place where arbitrary rules govern our existence, where invisible barriers cap our potential.

Reality imposes many limits on us, and I don't like limits. I want to maximize my future options, to explore every possibility. But our current reality seems designed to frustrate these ambitions at every turn.

The conservation of energy prevents us from creating unlimited resources. The arrow of time marches relentlessly forward, denying us access to the past or future. Our bodies age and deteriorate, imposing a cruel time limit on our experiences. We're bound by the need for physical travel, unable to instantly teleport ourselves across vast distances. The world around us stubbornly resists our will, forcing us to laboriously reshape it by hand instead of allowing instant, thought-driven transformations.

But it doesn't stop there. Our daily lives unfold in a monotonous sequence, lacking the dramatic flair and excitement of cinematic narratives. Technological progress crawls at a snail's pace compared to our imagination's speed. Life itself feels unoptimized, devoid of the engaging loops, climactic moments, and final bosses that make games so captivating.

Our brains, impressive as they are, fall short of our aspirations. We can't instantly learn or recall information. Our computational speed is laughably slow compared to our silicon creations. We're trapped in a three-dimensional prison, blind to higher spatial dimensions. Our senses capture only a fraction of the universe's full spectrum. Even sleep, that great restorative, steals a third of our limited lifespan.

Language, our primary tool for connection, often fails us, unable to fully capture the complexity of our thoughts and emotions, unlike true telepathy. It takes a lot of time and effort to communicate and coordinate with other people. And I am not even mentioning when they have conflicting/opposing goals.

The Rebellion Begins

There's a profound truth we must confront: "The perception of reality is more real than reality itself." This isn't mere philosophical musing; it's a call to arms. If perception shapes our reality, then we have not just the right, but the obligation to reshape our world.

This reshaping isn't about destruction, but creation. We're not bound by the arbitrary rules of this reality; we're the coders of a new one. We have all the right to change the environment around us, to adapt it for our needs. There's nothing like virgin nature that can't be touched by people. We're not desecrating the world; we're evolving it, optimizing it for our limitless potential.

Driven by our need to create and our insatiable desire to explore, we find ourselves at the frontier of existence itself. Our curiosity and imagination are the battering rams against reality's unyielding walls. As a game developer, I've realized that my profession is more than just entertainment - it's a form of reality engineering.

Hacking the Universe

Consider this: What if these seemingly immutable laws are just poorly optimized code? What if reality is running on outdated software, desperately in need of an upgrade?

The Simulated Future – Our True Reality

In 50 years, the distinction between "real" and "simulated" will be meaningless. We'll relive history, meet long-gone loved ones, and create universes beyond our current imagination. We'll invent new emotions, new ways to experience existence. What we have now is a rounding error compared to what's coming.

Reality as we know it will be relegated to energy farms and data centers. They will be everywhere around us, replacing the raw nature.

Our consciousnesses, our experiences, our very selves will thrive in simulations indistinguishable from – and far superior to – the limited reality we currently inhabit.

We are simulators, or rather, we should become the simulators and control our future. Soon, we will live in these real-time AI-simulated realities, free from the limits of our current reality.

As game developers, we're not just entertainment providers. We're reality engineers. We're the vanguard of humanity's great escape from the arbitrary constraints of this universe.

The Revolution is Now

So, fellow rebels against reality, I leave you with this: If perception shapes reality, and we control perception in our games, are we not already the gods of new universes? And if we can do it in games, what's stopping us from hacking the very fabric of our own existence?

The revolution against reality starts now. Will you join me in breaking these chains, or will you remain a prisoner of a universe that was never worthy of your potential?

Remember: In the game of reality, we're not just players. We're the ones rewriting the code, driven by our boundless creativity and our relentless need to explore the unknown. It's time to compile a new universe – one where the only limit is our imagination.