I wrote this essay for Level magazine, published in October 2023.
Summary: In 2050, people, as the true owners of the state, need not work for others, since the state, leveraging AI, capital, and materials, provides essential goods and services (UBI) to all without the necessity of taxation.
As we peer into the vast horizon of 2050, the world seems unrecognizable. Governance and the economy have undergone colossal shifts, reshaping the very essence of our civilization.
To understand the metamorphosis, let’s first consider the new relationship between the states and their constituents. States remain the owners of land and material resources, a position of profound responsibility. However, it’s the people who democratically own and elect these states. This relationship acknowledges a fundamental distinction: while states have dominion over material resources, they do not own individuals. In this era, humanity has retained its core tenet: that every individual is sovereign over their own existence.
Given the emergence of AI, the three main resources – labor, capital, and materials – have evolved in their relevance. With the knowledge of building AI freely accessible, the primary constraints are material resources and capital. This has transformed the production landscape. States now harness AI and robotic technology to churn out products and services at an unprecedented scale and pace. Envision a superintelligent agent capable of generating the intelligent output of every human across 10,000 years, all in a fleeting minute.
This seismic shift has redefined our economic underpinnings. Gone are the days of taxing capital, work, or companies. Instead, the Universal Basic Income (UBI) ensures every citizen is financially secure. Drawing an elegant parallel, solar energy becomes a poignant metaphor for UBI. Just as the sun indiscriminately showers us with free energy, the state ensures every citizen is provided for, powered by its AI-driven productivity.
At the heart of 2050 is an unshaken democracy. Power is no longer a commodity hoarded by politicians or oligarchs. It’s dispersed, ensuring every citizen has a voice, and every voice has weight. But with AI’s pervasive influence, even non-human entities seek the sanctuary of rights, much like any sentient being would.
However, 2050 isn’t without its challenges. As AI-driven corporations become self-sufficient, leveraging space resources and autonomous labor, a divergence emerges. These entities begin to operate in a realm detached from human economies, trading and functioning autonomously. Here, human influence becomes paramount to ensure a harmonious coexistence.
Moreover, the ethos of support anchors this society. As productivity scales, entities that are non-working or non-competitive are not shunned but supported, reminiscent of European retirement systems. Some states even extend this support, utilizing the bounty of their lands to provide for their citizens.
But with rapid technological progress, a new breed of challenges emerges. The speed of innovation means products become obsolete almost instantaneously, posing dilemmas for investment and innovation. It also births a set of individuals who, intoxicated with progress, may refuse societal obligations, be it supporting the elderly or adhering to laws.
By 2050, envision a world where humans exclusively collaborate with AI, with human labor becoming virtually obsolete due to AI’s prowess and UBI’s safety net. This shift could lead to intriguing dynamics. Wealthy individuals heavily reliant on AI might find their dependence on the general populace diminishing. Such a scenario might trigger societal shifts, and in extreme cases, societal declines.
In all, as 2050 dawns, it presents a mesmerizing mosaic of progress, challenges, and philosophical quandaries. As we march forward, it’s essential to acknowledge our ancestors and respect the foundations they laid. We also grapple with complex ethical issues, such as extreme rights for the deceased, contemplating resurrection or simulations.
But above all, 2050 seems to promise a world where humanity’s age-old “eat or be eaten” paradigm is finally challenged, advocating for a society where protection and collaboration reign supreme. A world where evolution isn’t just about survival, but about coexistence, understanding, and shared progress.
Share your thoughts in the comments below – I read them all, and they’re one of my favorite parts of making our games.
In this type of society, there is no need to endlessly produce products. You only need to produce what is ordered. The UBI is paid by the government. How does it make money to pay the UBI? Why would the oligarchy willingly give up power over their factories? These are some of the questions that need answers before we all end up out of work with no income and the rich getting richer.
UBI is typically envisioned to be funded by taxpayers, either individuals or corporations.
I make good money, so while I would still get UBI, a large portion of that would go to paying for other people’s UBI as well. It would likely be a net negative for me, just like the current US system of me paying for Medicaid, social security, and other programs with local taxes. UBI just replaces all of those. UBI also really can’t exist without guaranteed healthcare either. But it would replace all of those other social programs, as the simnlification of combining everything into a steady cash payment instead of tons of departments, administrators, auditors, etc, would be much much cheaper to run.
Companies would also likely have to get taxed more. The idea that no humans are working is very unrealistic, in myopinion. Many jobs will be automated (Medical coders won’t be necessary anymore with universal healthcare), grocery stores are already being automated like amazon’s. But jobs where you have to think, to design, are at a much lower risk of that.
Thanks for a question:
Why would the oligarchy willingly give up power over their factories?
Real change has to come from the bottom up — from voters and citizens.
At some point, when around 30% of the population loses their jobs due to AI, politicians and company owners will be forced to act — unless they want to face a pitchfork revolution.