Monday, May 24, 2021

Why am I doubtful about the future of Bitcoin?

1. People use Bitcoin as a speculative asset rather than as a means of payment. Bitcoin isn't used where it could be most beneficial: storing and communicating value across time and space.

2. Volatility. It could be solved if we all use Bitcoin and nothing else. I don't know how this can be achieved.

3. Energy consumption. I could close my eyes on this if Bitcoin delivered what it promises. If Bitcoin would revolutionize the way we think about the economy, then the benefits could outweigh the energy costs.

4. What kind of complex system do we want our economy to be? Static and fixed? Or dynamic and evolving - with ever-changing credit-assignment schemes? If we get stuck with a monetary system that can't be adapted and regulated, it could have a terrible outcome.

5. This one is sci-fi but relevant: can Bitcoin communicate value across unlimited time and space? Imagine a multi-species civilization spanning thousands of years and multiple solar systems.

6. I am not convinced that wealth preservation over unlimited time is beneficial for the progress of humanity. Perhaps we should reward those who create new value instead of hanging on to piles of gold/Bitcoin.

7. Maybe the future of money is a decentralized cryptocurrency, but I am not convinced it will be Bitcoin. What if people in the future decide not to use the current Bitcoin but to start a Bitcoin 2.0 with fewer flaws? One of the reasons could be to avoid rewarding today's Bitcoin early adopters and speculators. Why? You don’t want to reward those who just lucked out in your credit assignment scheme. I am not convinced that rentiersm is beneficial for the economy.

8. There are many more entities in the economy than just money. Each of them must be incentivized to use Bitcoin and not want to overthrow it.
“Gold will not always get you good soldiers, but good soldiers can get you gold.”
- Niccolo Machiavelli

Marek Rosa
CEO, Creative Director, Founder at Keen Software House
CEO, CTO, Founder at GoodAI

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Personal bio:
Marek Rosa is the CEO and CTO of GoodAI, a general artificial intelligence R&D company, and the CEO and founder of Keen Software House, an independent game development studio best known for its best-seller Space Engineers (4 million copies sold). Both companies are based in Prague, Czech Republic.

Marek has been interested in artificial intelligence since childhood. He started his career as a programmer but later transitioned to a leadership role. After the success of the Keen Software House titles, Marek was able to personally fund GoodAI, his new general AI research company building human-level artificial intelligence.

GoodAI was founded in January 2014, with a $10 Million investment from Marek, it now has over 30 research scientists, engineers, and consultants working across its divisions.

At this time, Marek is developing Space Engineers, as well as leading daily research and development on recursive self-improvement based general AI architecture - Badger.